MONOKULTUR

“In short, Russia has lost,” sagde den midaldrende, fedladne kvindelige general Mark Milley i februar og fulgte op “They’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.” Det var mens vi alle ventede “as Ukraine prepares for what it says will be an enormous post-winter offensive”, som Jack Waterford formulerede det, mens han advarede

If that occurs it will be from within Ukraine’s existing military resources and manpower, because recent western promises of tanks, heavier armour, and upgraded air and missile defences have yet to arrive in the country.

Jeg har ingen illusion om, at jeg har indsigt i Ukraine krigen eller kender ‘en god kilde’, der præcis ved hvorledes det går ved fronten. Det har faktisk været en deprimerende oplevelse, at se både familie og venner på sociale medier være pludselige eksperter, som de som virtuelle krigsturister kaster sig over seneste nyt fra fronten. Men hvad man kan gøre er at lægge mærke til de skift i tonen man oplever i pressen.

Man hører ofte om en samling landsbyer, der er blevet befriet af ukainerne, oftest efter russerne har trukket sig tilbage (eller om-grupperet) i pressen, men hver gang der kæmpes om en by, ser russerne ud til at vinde. Kherson, Mariupol, Bakmut – indrømmet, russserne trak sig ud af Kherson. Men byerne er at betragte som krigens trofæer, og russerne ser ud til at vinde dem. 

Fra starten af krigen var der fra Det Hvide Hus, der grundlæggende er NATOs ejer, grænser for, hvilke våben man ville sende til Ukraine. Langtrækkende misiler, Abrams tanks og F-16 fly var udelukket, fordi det ville eskalere konflikten og bringe os tættere på en direkte krig med Rusland. Truslen blev taget så alvorligt at præsident Biden hviskede den til mikrofonen og så er det virkeligt noget han mener. Men nu har de fået det. Man eskalerer ikke konflikten fordi man er ved at vinde. Vi er fanget i et spil poker, hvor vi bliver ved med at øge indsatsen fordi vi ikke kan overskue at tabe det, der allerede er på bordet.

Forårsoffensiven har ikke leveret, hvad den lovede, så nu sætter man et nyt succeskriterium.

“Biden has succeed in rallying NATO nations to help fight a proxy war between Ukraine and Russia, without putting any American boots on the ground.” sagde CNNs Chuck Todd. Nu er det altså helt ude af sækken, at det ikke handler om at frelse Ukraine, så det løb er sikkert kørt. Biden sagde, da han blev spurgt om Bakmut var faldet i sidste måned

“Bakmut is a discussion of whether or not it is lost or whatever. And while the truth of the matter is, the russians have suffered over a hundred thousand casualties in Bakmut. It’s hard to make up!”

Whatever, bare russere er døde, thi det er krigens formål. Men de fleste blev ved med retorikken om det stolte Ukraine, der kæmpede for deres frihed. Men det ser ikke ud til at gå så godt, for “Ukraine’s existing military resources and manpower”, der har fået klyngebomber fordi de er løbet tør for ammunition. 

John Kirby fortalte Fox News, at man ikke længere mener, der er tilstrækkeligt med ukrainske styrker, mellem NATO og russerne.

We have already increased by 20.000 the number of troops we have on the european… by and large we’ve been able to keep that rotational presence there, so that you got more than 80.000 troops there in Europe. And that’s a lot.

And what we are gonna do with this small number of 2.000 reservists and national guardsmen… these are people that are specialists in things like administrative functions, logistics, supply, maybe medical, dental, those kinds of things… the kind of enabling functions that you need to be able to support and sustain a large troop presence for a long time. 

And what this basically is, is that a realization in fact, that we know, the president knows, that the security environment in Europe is changed. Not has changed, will change, it’s changed now!

And we gotta make sure that we got the proper force posture to be able to support an additional eastern flank presence for the long haul!

US Defense Intelligence Agencys John Kirchhofer siger at det er gået “lidt i stå”, som han håber på Wunderwaffe

Certainly we are in a bit of a stalemate. We do see incremental gains by Ukraine as they commit to this counteroffensive over the summer. But we haven’t seen anything that really helped them break through. You know, for example to drive to the Crimea.

It’s interesting to me, that we tend to focus on the munitions that we, the west provides to Ukraine as they fight this out. And we look at some of them as Holy Grails as they play out. So if you think Heymars, certainly that led to some sensational tactical events and the Storm Shadow missile will do the same thing. And now we are talking about dual purpose improved conventional munitions or cluster bombs.

None of these, unfortunately is the Holy Grail…

“After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy” skrev New York Times forleden

In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.

The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10 percent in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come.

Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire.

But that good news obscures some grim realities. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.

One Ukrainian soldier said in an interview this week that his unit’s drone picked up footage of a half-dozen Western armored vehicles caught in an artillery barrage south of the town of Velyka Novosilka.

“They all burned,” said the soldier, who identified himself as Sgt. Igor. “Everybody is hoping for a big breakthrough,” he said, adding a plea that those scrutinizing from afar appreciate the importance of slow and steady advances.

Artiklen forsøger retorisk optimisme “American officials acknowledged that pause and said that the Ukrainians had begun moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of the casualty risks.”, ““It’s not as fast, but it’s not catastrophically behind schedule,””, “The Bradleys have done part of their job well”, men virkeligheden bliver ved med at trænge sig på

Military analysts cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary general.

Nevertheless, he added, the absence of air superiority and air defenses that Western jets could provide for Ukraine’s attack means “that casualty rates are likely to be higher than in other conventional conflicts.”

Foreign Policy skriver, i en besynderligt vinklet artikel, at våbenføre mænd i Ukraine regnes mellem 18 og 60 år. Det er ikke et godt tegn for Ukraine

On July 5, Ukrainian army generals issued a proclamation dramatically expanding the martial law prohibiting Ukrainian civilian men’s freedom of movement, calling on all those “liable for military service” to remain in their home districts. With the Twitter hashtag #UkraineLetMenOut, citizens had already been complaining bitterly about men being unable to leave the country with their families since Russia’s invasion. After the new proclamation came down, one Ukrainian tweeted, “Now we can’t even leave our cities without permission from military recruitment centers.” Another tweeted, “Animals have more rights in Ukraine than men.”

As a conflict researcher who recently spent time assisting with the humanitarian effort and reporting from the Poland-Ukraine border, I’ve been hearing from young civilian men in Ukraine for months, with some reaching out to me via anonymous Twitter accounts. Even before this proclamation, they felt terrified and desperate. One young man hiding out in Lviv, Ukraine—whom I’ll call Andrij—asked me to share his story but was afraid to use his real name. Andrij was separated from his mother, sister, and fiancee when they fled to London and he was forced to stay behind.

“My fiancée and sick mother need me abroad so that I can work and help them. Now I can’t even help myself, I am left alone with strangers [and] without a home and cannot leave the country,” he said. “My friends and I have no experience and we do not want to hold weapons and cannot physically fight. I live in fear they will send me to war without proper training. My friends were trained for five days and sent to Donetsk. I’m worried about the men in this country, many others are worse off than me.”

Vinklen er, at mænd diskrimineres ved ikke at måtte rejse ud af landet, mens kvinder gerne må. I en krig, er dette bekymringen. Heldigvis er der også godt nyt da “gay men I spoke with say unequivocally that the discrimination they face is not because they are gay, but simply because they are men”. Den dag bøsserne skilles ud for særlig diskriminering ved man at Ukraine er faldet.