Sådan skrev Scott Adams til følgende Tweet fra Andrew C McCarthy
Very simple: Trump can’t win. 65% already against him. That’s before Dems launch barrage after getting him nominated. If we finally grasp that, his support will collapse. If not, we lose everything, and Dems use majorities to remake Supreme Court. Nominate him if you want, but that’s reality.
Det er en besnærende logik, den gamle ‘never Trumper’ disker op med. Vi er mange der ikke kan lide Trump, derfor kan han ikke vinde. Men, som Adams mindede om på sin podcast, Trump er kun den ene af to kandidater. Alt, hvad det handler om i politik, er at være det mindste onde.
CNN skriver til skræk for deres tilbageværende publikum
Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.
No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent. He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined.
Three prior candidates in open primaries were pulling in more than half the vote in primary surveys in the second half of the calendar year before the election: Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Gore remains the only nonincumbent to win every single presidential nominating contest, while Bush and Clinton never lost their national polling advantage in their primaries.
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A look back at past polls does show candidates coming back from deficits greater than 10 points to win the nomination, but none greater than 30 points at this point. In fact, the biggest comebacks when you average all the polls in the second half of the year before the election top out at about 20 points (Democrats George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008).
“The good news for Democrats is that general election polling, unlike primary polling, is not predictive at this point.” trøster CNNs analyse den håndfuld, der har tvunget sig selv til at læse dystopien færdig. Men på Breitbart kan man læse “Nearly half, 48 percent, of independents support Trump. Biden comes in eight percent behind with 40 percent support among independents. Twelve percent remain unsure.” Og her er min teori om almindelige mennesker i spil – hvis man ikke er politisk, er man sikkert et rimeligt anstændigt menneske, der vil høre parterne føre deres argumentation.
Erfaringen med Trump kan sættes op over for erfaringen med Biden og Demokraterne. Asyl-byerne klager nu over indvandringen fordi de ikke kan håndtere de migranter, som grænsestaterne sender videre. Krigen i Ukraine er udsigtsløs, Trump “want everybody to stop dying!”. Inflationen plager lønmodtagerne. Trumps politik overfor Kina, var så god, at Bidens regering har måttet sande, at de virkeligt stjal madkassen og at det ikke er i USAs interesse med et stærkt Kina. Abraham Aftalerne ser så småt ud til også at omfatte Saudoarabien
Trumps sager viser sig stadigt mere som politisk forfølgelse. Mueller Rapporten gav ingenting. Den Perfekte Samtale er nu direkte knyttet til Bidens korruption. Krigen i Ukraine og Den Dybe Stat. De mange sager, der følger dette mønster, vil ses af flere gennem de briller. Ah, Bidens sager. The Federalist skriver om overhovedet for den skuffeselskabs entusiastiske Biden familie
Among the documents committee Chairman James Comer is requesting from the National Archives is an email sent to a “Robert Peters” — that is, Biden — with the subject line “Friday Schedule Card,” which included an attachment that had details about a scheduled phone call between then-Vice President Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in May 2016. The only person copied on the email was Hunter Biden.
Isn’t that interesting? Why would Biden use an alias to convey this information to his son? And why, if there was “an absolute wall” between Hunter’s foreign business schemes and his father’s duties as vice president (as Biden has repeatedly claimed), would he have told his son about a phone call with the Ukrainian president? Especially since at the time Hunter was sitting on the board of Burisma, the Ukrainian energy firm that had recently been under investigation.
You know why. The whole country knows why. It’s the same reason Biden had coffee and went to dinners with his son’s foreign business associates when he was vice president. It’s the same reason Hunter would call his father and put him on speakerphone during business meetings. It’s why the Bidens created a network of shell companies to receive tens of millions in payments from oligarchs in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Romania, and China.
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It’s not too much of a stretch to think the Bidens probably assumed — as most of Washington assumed — that Trump had almost no chance of winning the general election against Hillary Clinton that November. And with Clinton in the White House, Joe Biden wouldn’t have to worry about anyone asking questions about his involvement in Shokin’s firing or his connections to Hunter’s foreign business deals, as Trump eventually did. He wouldn’t have to worry about GOP investigations into his use of pseudonyms and his family’s complex network of shell companies and payments from foreign oligarchs. His blatant influence-peddling, in other words, would receive zero scrutiny from a Clinton administration. (The Clintons, after all, perfected influence-peddling through their Clinton Global Initiative.)
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What should arguably be more amazing is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. A poll out last week from Marquette University Law School had Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise (with a statistically insignificant few more respondents choosing Trump).
The Marquette poll is one of a number of surveys showing Trump either tied or ahead of Biden. The ABC News/Washington Post poll has published three surveys of the matchup between the two, and Trump has come out ahead – albeit within the margin of error – every time. Other pollsters have shown Biden only narrowly ahead.
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